Breaking Down the BCS Bowl Projections

It is less than a week before we officially find out who will play in the five BCS games.  Let’s see how they will shape up.

The bowl projections for the rest of the games will be posted soon, but a special post for just the BCS games was needed.

There are a couple teams that are into a BCS game, regardless of outcomes this weekend.  As current No. 1 and No. 2 in the BCS standings, Florida State and Ohio State are in BCS games, regardless of how they play in their conference championship games.

Despite not playing this week, Alabama is in a BCS game.  As the top team in the country for practically the entire season, the Crimson Tide will play in one of the country’s top bowl games.

The Buckeyes’ opponent in the Big Ten Championship Game, Michigan State, will also play in a BCS game, no matter what.  The Spartans will either be the Big Ten representative, or a replacement team for Ohio State.

Champions of the SEC, Pac-12, Big 12, and American conferences all gain automatic bids to BCS games.  In each conference, only one team will make it, and it is too close to call.  The one exception might be the Big 12 Conference, which could have two one-loss teams as attractive alternatives.

Northern Illinois is in a ‘win-and-in’ situation.  The Huskies should qualify as a non-AQ (automatic qualifier), at-large team for the second straight year.  Since Northern Illinois is not in one of the major conferences, they qualify by either being in the top-12 of the BCS standings, or in the top-16 with a qualifying conference champion ranked lower.

In the end, it leaves one spot open.  Despite Clemson’s loss to South Carolina, the Tigers may squeak into a BCS game.  The Orange Bowl may attempt to preserve its ACC tie-in, and opt to take a two-loss Clemson team, rather than a more qualified team.

Here are the projections:

Rose Bowl – Stanford (Pac-12 Champions) vs. Michigan State (replacement team for Ohio State)

Fiesta Bowl – Baylor (Big 12 Champions) vs. Northern Illinois (3rd at-large pick; non-AQ team finishing high in BCS (see above explanation)

Sugar Bowl – Auburn (SEC Champions) vs. UCF (American Conference Champions; no direct conference tie-in, 2nd at-large pick)

Orange Bowl – Clemson (replacement team for Florida State) vs. Alabama (1st at-large pick)

BCS National Championship – Florida State (No. 1 in BCS Standings) vs. Ohio State (No. 2 in BCS Standings)