Ability Defeats Destiny in Battle for National Title

If this was last year’s system for determining a champion in college football, we would have seen Ohio State take on Oregon in the Rose Bowl.  Wrapping up this season, it’s for the National Championship.

Ohio State has been through so much adversity this season, and that is just describing the quarterback situation.  Braxton Miller injured his shoulder in an early season practice.  The Buckeyes turned to J.T. Barrett.  While there were some early season struggles, including a loss to Virginia Tech, the team turned it around and was flying high.

However, against Michigan, Barrett broke his ankle.  The next man up was Cardale Jones.  In the two games he has started, he has won the Big Ten Championship Game and clinched a spot in the National Championship with a win over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.

Ohio State seems to be a team of destiny, but Oregon may just be too good.

The Ducks are led by Heisman Trophy winning QB Marcus Mariota.  They have a high-powered offense that is predicated on being fast.  I am a firm believer in winning the time of possession battle, but Oregon seems to have found a method that also works.

Compared to past years, Oregon seems to have a more complete team than in past years.  They were not considered a favorite entering the year, but managed to find its way into the first College Football Playoff.

In picking this game, I would be more likely to pick the team of destiny.  However, Oregon really was impressive in their win in the Rose Bowl over Florida State.  This just might be the Ducks year, because they are better.  The pick of Oregon does not or is not meant to take away anything from the job Urban Meyer and the Buckeyes have done to get into this position.  To be in a situation or being competitive on your third string quarterback is simply amazing.

The pick: Oregon 45, Ohio State 34

Side Notes

• Through all of the bowls and the semifinals, the overall picking record is 313-98 (.762).  The record in the bowls and semifinals was 23-15 (.605), and 1-1 in the two semifinal games.
• The first mock NFL Draft of the offseason will come after the deadline for underclassmen to declare passes and more of the draft order is completed (a.k.a. we get to Super Bowl week.)

First College Football Playoff Picks

It is New Year’s Day, meaning the first College Football Playoff is tonight.  There are still three more games to pick for the college football season.  Here are two of the three:

Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual:  #2 Oregon vs. #3 Florida State (This is the year that QB Marcus Mariota and the Ducks have been able to put everything together.  In years past, something was missing.  What makes it even better is that this was the first time in a few years, that Oregon wasn’t necessarily mentioned as one of the teams to make this game in the beginning, but they are right in the mix as always.)

Allstate Sugar Bowl:  #1 Alabama vs. Ohio State (The Buckeyes’ performance in the Big Ten Championship Game was simply dominating.  The question is whether or not QB Cardale Jones and the rest of the team can channel that domination again, or will the fact that Ohio State is on their third quarterback of the season show up.)

Happy New Year!

College Football Picks Week 15

With the exception of Army vs. Navy, it’s the last week of the college football season.  This week is a mix of regular season finales, and conference championship games.  It is also the annual week where we pick every college football game.

The bowl picture is also taking shape.  It’s about time to start the hash-tag: #BringBacktheBCS.  If you want to see the latest bowl projections, CLICK HERE.

Last Week:  19-7 (.731)

Overall:  280-78 (.782)

UCF vs. East Carolina

Northern Illinois vs. Bowling Green (MAC Championship Game)

#7 Arizona vs. #2 Oregon (Pac-12 Championship Game; This may be a play-in game to the College Football Playoff.)

Louisiana Tech vs. Marshall (Conference USA Championship Game)

Houston vs. Cincinnati

SMU vs. Connecticut (Good luck next year Chad Morris.)

Iowa State vs. #3 TCU

Oklahoma State vs. #20 Oklahoma

#1 Alabama vs. #16 Missouri (SEC Championship Game; It is impressive for Missouri to win the SEC East in its first two seasons in the SEC.)

Temple vs. Tulane

#9 Kansas State vs. #6 Baylor

#4 Florida State vs. #11 Georgia Tech (ACC Championship Game)

#13 Wisconsin vs. #5 Ohio State (Big Ten Championship Game)

Fresno State vs. #22 Boise State (Mountain West Championship Game; All Boise State has to do is win and they are in as the ‘non-power 5’ team in the top bowls.)

College Football Week 14 Picks

It is the first of the last two weeks of the College Football season.  It means tons of rivalry games.  Next week will be a mix of regular season games and conference championship games.

If you haven’t had a chance, check out the most recent bowl projections, posted earlier this week here.  Teams that need to win to be bowl eligible will be denoted with an asterisk.

Last Week:  19-7 (.731)

Overall:  261-71 (.786)

#5 TCU vs. Texas

LSU vs. Texas A&M

Stanford vs. #8 UCLA

#13 Arizona State vs. #11 Arizona

Arkansas vs. #17 Missouri

Western Kentucky vs. #24 Marshall (It is sad that an undefeated team may not be in one of the big games.)

*Virginia vs. *Virginia Tech (Winner goes to a bowl game, loser, especially if its Virginia Tech, will be extremely disappointed.)

#15 Auburn vs. #1 Alabama

#2 Oregon vs. *Oregon State

Florida vs. #3 Florida State

#4 Mississippi State vs. #19 Ole Miss

*Michigan vs. #6 Ohio State

#7 Baylor vs. Texas Tech

#16 Georgia Tech vs. #9 Georgia (This game has the potential to be one of the best of the weekend.)

#10 Michigan State vs. Penn State

Kansas vs. #12 Kansas State

#18 Minnesota vs. #14 Wisconsin (Winner in this game goes to the Big Ten Championship game against Ohio State.)

South Carolina vs. #21 Clemson (Without Deshaun Watson or an injured Watson, I don’t think Clemson can win.)

*Kentucky vs. #22 Louisville

Utah State vs. #23 Boise State (Winner could go to the Mountain West Championship game.)

#25 Utah vs. Colorado

Syracuse vs. Boston College

NC State vs. North Carolina

Wake Forest vs. Duke

*Pittsburgh vs. Miami (FL)

*Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt

College Football Week 6 Picks

It’s week six of the 2014 College Football season, which is significant for one reason: a team could become bowl eligible this week.

However, most teams will accomplish that feat in the next few weeks, as only Texas A&M and Nebraska have five wins and play this week.  A new set of bowl projections will come out next week.

Last Week:  21-5 (.808)

Overall:  126-22 (.851)

Arizona vs. #2 Oregon

Louisville vs. Syracuse

Utah State vs. #18 BYU

Wake Forest vs. #1 Florida State

#3 Alabama vs. #11 Ole Miss (Ole Miss is a nice story, but I don’t think they measure up against Alabama.)

#4 Oklahoma vs. #25 TCU

#15 LSU vs. #5 Auburn

#6 Texas A&M vs. #12 Mississippi State (See comment about Alabama vs. Ole Miss and apply here.)

#7 Baylor vs. Texas

Utah vs. #8 UCLA

#14 Stanford vs. #9 Notre Dame

#19 Nebraska vs. #10 Michigan State

Vanderbilt vs. #13 Georgia

Arizona State vs. #16 USC

#17 Wisconsin vs. Northwestern

#20 Ohio State vs. Maryland (Maybe this is where Maryland gets their true welcome to the Big Ten Conference.)

Iowa State vs. #21 Oklahoma State

SMU vs. #22 East Carolina (This is probably the only top-25 team, pretty much assured of a win.)

Texas Tech vs. #23 Kansas State

Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina (The Tar Heels can’t stop anybody.)

NC State vs. Clemson

Miami (FL) vs. Georgia Tech

Pittsburgh vs. Virginia

Florida vs. Tennessee (With two teams evenly matched, got to go with the home team.)

South Carolina vs. Kentucky (It’s been awhile since the Gamecocks were included with the non-top-25 teams from the SEC.)

Breaking Down the BCS Bowl Projections

It is less than a week before we officially find out who will play in the five BCS games.  Let’s see how they will shape up.

The bowl projections for the rest of the games will be posted soon, but a special post for just the BCS games was needed.

There are a couple teams that are into a BCS game, regardless of outcomes this weekend.  As current No. 1 and No. 2 in the BCS standings, Florida State and Ohio State are in BCS games, regardless of how they play in their conference championship games.

Despite not playing this week, Alabama is in a BCS game.  As the top team in the country for practically the entire season, the Crimson Tide will play in one of the country’s top bowl games.

The Buckeyes’ opponent in the Big Ten Championship Game, Michigan State, will also play in a BCS game, no matter what.  The Spartans will either be the Big Ten representative, or a replacement team for Ohio State.

Champions of the SEC, Pac-12, Big 12, and American conferences all gain automatic bids to BCS games.  In each conference, only one team will make it, and it is too close to call.  The one exception might be the Big 12 Conference, which could have two one-loss teams as attractive alternatives.

Northern Illinois is in a ‘win-and-in’ situation.  The Huskies should qualify as a non-AQ (automatic qualifier), at-large team for the second straight year.  Since Northern Illinois is not in one of the major conferences, they qualify by either being in the top-12 of the BCS standings, or in the top-16 with a qualifying conference champion ranked lower.

In the end, it leaves one spot open.  Despite Clemson’s loss to South Carolina, the Tigers may squeak into a BCS game.  The Orange Bowl may attempt to preserve its ACC tie-in, and opt to take a two-loss Clemson team, rather than a more qualified team.

Here are the projections:

Rose Bowl – Stanford (Pac-12 Champions) vs. Michigan State (replacement team for Ohio State)

Fiesta Bowl – Baylor (Big 12 Champions) vs. Northern Illinois (3rd at-large pick; non-AQ team finishing high in BCS (see above explanation)

Sugar Bowl – Auburn (SEC Champions) vs. UCF (American Conference Champions; no direct conference tie-in, 2nd at-large pick)

Orange Bowl – Clemson (replacement team for Florida State) vs. Alabama (1st at-large pick)

BCS National Championship – Florida State (No. 1 in BCS Standings) vs. Ohio State (No. 2 in BCS Standings)