Ability Defeats Destiny in Battle for National Title

If this was last year’s system for determining a champion in college football, we would have seen Ohio State take on Oregon in the Rose Bowl.  Wrapping up this season, it’s for the National Championship.

Ohio State has been through so much adversity this season, and that is just describing the quarterback situation.  Braxton Miller injured his shoulder in an early season practice.  The Buckeyes turned to J.T. Barrett.  While there were some early season struggles, including a loss to Virginia Tech, the team turned it around and was flying high.

However, against Michigan, Barrett broke his ankle.  The next man up was Cardale Jones.  In the two games he has started, he has won the Big Ten Championship Game and clinched a spot in the National Championship with a win over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.

Ohio State seems to be a team of destiny, but Oregon may just be too good.

The Ducks are led by Heisman Trophy winning QB Marcus Mariota.  They have a high-powered offense that is predicated on being fast.  I am a firm believer in winning the time of possession battle, but Oregon seems to have found a method that also works.

Compared to past years, Oregon seems to have a more complete team than in past years.  They were not considered a favorite entering the year, but managed to find its way into the first College Football Playoff.

In picking this game, I would be more likely to pick the team of destiny.  However, Oregon really was impressive in their win in the Rose Bowl over Florida State.  This just might be the Ducks year, because they are better.  The pick of Oregon does not or is not meant to take away anything from the job Urban Meyer and the Buckeyes have done to get into this position.  To be in a situation or being competitive on your third string quarterback is simply amazing.

The pick: Oregon 45, Ohio State 34

Side Notes

• Through all of the bowls and the semifinals, the overall picking record is 313-98 (.762).  The record in the bowls and semifinals was 23-15 (.605), and 1-1 in the two semifinal games.
• The first mock NFL Draft of the offseason will come after the deadline for underclassmen to declare passes and more of the draft order is completed (a.k.a. we get to Super Bowl week.)

Way Too Early 2014-15 Bowl Projections

This year’s college football season starts later this week.  It begins a new era in the sport.

Gone is my preferred way of determining a national champion, the BCS.  In its place, a more popular College Football Playoff.  Four teams will battle for the national title this year.  I think there could have been a nice way to keep everyone happy, by having the top four teams in the aggregated rankings battle in the College Football Playoff.  However, there will be a selection committee, much like college basketball.

With the creation of the College Football Playoff, the overall bowl selection process by the different conferences was redone.  Some conferences kept the same way, while others have gone to a tiered system, and one has gone to the conference champion choosing where it goes.

Nevertheless, I’ve done my best to figure it out, and present some way too early bowl projections.

Note:  It has not been determined which of the semifinal games will be played in which bowl.  In 2014, the rotation awards the games to the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl.  The #1 and #4 ranked teams will be in one game, while the other will be between the second and third ranked teams.  Which bowl will host each game, has not been determined.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF	TEAM	TEAM
Rose Bowl Game Rose Bowl – Pasadena, California Thursday, January 1st 5:00 p.m. – ESPN	#1 Florida State	#4 Wisconsin
Allstate Sugar Bowl Mercedes-Benz Superdome New Orleans, Louisiana Thursday, January 1st 8:30 p.m. – ESPN	#2 Oklahoma	#3 South Carolina
College Football Championship Game AT&T Stadium – Arlington, Texas Monday, January 12th 8:30 p.m. – ESPN	Rose Bowl Game Winner	Allstate Sugar Bowl Winner
OTHER ‘BIG’ BOWLS	TEAM	TEAM
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl Georgia Dome – Atlanta, Georgia Wednesday, December 31st 1:00 p.m. – ESPN	Michigan State	Alabama
Fiesta Bowl University of Phoenix Stadium Glendale, Arizona Wednesday, December 31st 5:00 p.m. – ESPN	Nebraska	Oregon
Discover Orange Bowl Sun Life Stadium Miami Gardens, Florida Wednesday, December 31st 8:30 p.m. – ESPN	Virginia Tech	Auburn
AT&T Cotton Bowl Classic AT&T Stadium – Arlington, Texas Thursday, January 1st 1:00 p.m. – ESPN	Cincinnati	Stanford
BOWL	TEAM	TEAM
R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl Mercedes-Benz Superdome New Orleans, Louisiana Saturday, December 20th 11:00 am – ESPN	Utah State	Louisiana-Lafayette
Gildan New Mexico Bowl University Stadium Albuquerque, New Mexico Saturday, December 20th 2:20 p.m. – ESPN	UTSA	San Diego State
Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl Sam Boyd Stadium Las Vegas, Nevada Saturday, December 20th 3:30 p.m. – ABC	Boise State	Arizona
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Bronco Stadium – Boise, Idaho Saturday, December 20th 5:45 p.m. – ESPN	Ball State	Nevada
Raycom Media Camellia Bowl Cramton Bowl Montgomery, Alabama Saturday, December 20th 9:15 p.m. – ESPN	Ohio	Arkansas State
Miami Beach Bowl Marlins Park – Miami, Florida Monday, December 22nd 2:00 p.m. – ESPN	BYU	Southern Methodist
Boca Raton Bowl FAU Stadium Boca Raton, Florida Tuesday, December 23rd 6:00 p.m. – ESPN	Middle Tennessee	Toledo
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl Qualcomm Stadium San Diego, California Tuesday, December 23rd 9:30 p.m. – ESPN	Fresno State	Navy
Bahamas Bowl Thomas Robinson Stadium Nassau, Bahamas Wednesday, December 24th 12:00 p.m. – ESPN	Louisiana Tech	Bowling Green
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl Aloha Stadium Honolulu, Hawaii Wednesday, December 24th 8:00 p.m. – ESPN	Rice	Colorado State
Heart of Dallas Bowl Cotton Bowl Stadium Dallas, Texas Friday, December 26th 1:00 p.m. – ESPN	Texas Tech	Marshall
Detroit Lions Bowl Ford Field – Detroit, Michigan Friday, December 26th 4:30 p.m. – ESPN	Kent State	North Carolina State
BITCOIN St. Petersburg Bowl Tropicana Field St. Petersburg, Florida Friday, December 26th 8:00 p.m. – ESPN	Duke	UCF
Military Bowl Navy-Marine Corps. Stadium Annapolis, Maryland Saturday, December 27th 1:00 p.m. – ESPN	Pittsburgh	South Florida
Hyundai Sun Bowl Sun Bowl Stadium El Paso, Texas Saturday, December 27th 2:00 p.m. – CBS	Georgia Tech	Arizona State
Duck Commander Independence Bowl Independence Stadium Shreveport, Louisiana Saturday, December 27th 4:00 p.m. – ESPN2	Miami (FL)	Florida Atlantic
New Era Pinstripe Bowl Yankee Stadium Bronx, New York Saturday, December 27th 4:30 p.m. – ESPN	Notre Dame	Buffalo
National University Holiday Bowl Qualcomm Stadium San Diego, California Saturday, December 27th 8:00 p.m. – ESPN	Rutgers	Washington
AutoZone Liberty Bowl Liberty Bowl Memphis, Tennessee Monday, December 29th 2:00 p.m. – ESPN	Baylor	Florida
Russell Athletic Bowl Florida Citrus Bowl Orlando, Florida Monday, December 29th 5:30 p.m. – ESPN	Louisville	Texas
AdvoCare Texas Bowl NRG Stadium – Houston, Texas Monday, December 29th 9:00 p.m. – ESPN	West Virginia	Vanderbilt
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl LP Field – Nashville, Tennessee Tuesday, December 30th 3:00 p.m. – ESPN	Michigan	Georgia
Belk Bowl Bank of America Stadium Charlotte, North Carolina Tuesday, December 30th 6:30 p.m. – ESPN	Clemson	Mississippi State
San Francisco Bowl Levi’s Stadium Santa Clara, California Tuesday, December 30th 10:00 p.m. – ESPN	Minnesota	UCLA
Capital One Bowl Florida Citrus Bowl Orlando, Florida Thursday, January 1st 1:00 p.m. – ABC	Iowa	LSU
Outback Bowl Raymond James Stadium Tampa, Florida Thursday, January 1st 1:00 p.m. – ESPN2	Ohio State	Texas A&M
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl Amon G. Carter Stadium Fort Worth, Texas Friday, January 2nd 12:00 p.m. – ESPN	Kansas State	Connecticut
TaxSlayer Bowl EverBank Field Jacksonville, Florida Friday, January 2nd 3:20 p.m. – ESPN	North Carolina	Missouri
Valero Alamo Bowl Alamodome San Antonio, Texas Friday, January 2nd 6:45 p.m. – ESPN	Oklahoma State	USC
Cactus Bowl Sun Devil Stadium Tempe, Arizona Friday, January 2nd 10:15 p.m. – ESPN	TCU	Oregon State
Birmingham Bowl Legion Field Birmingham, Alabama Saturday, January 3rd 1:00 p.m. – ESPN/ESPN2	Ole Miss	Houston
GoDaddy Bowl Ladd-Peebles Stadium Mobile, Alabama Sunday, January 4th 9:00 p.m. – ESPN	Northern Illinois	Louisiana-Monroe

 

Disclaimer:  I have come up with these projections on my own, based on predicting each team’s record for the upcoming season.  Any likenesses to the real experts is purely coincidental.  If you wish to share, please give credit to where credit is due.

Updated Bowl Projections: Northern Illinois Returns to BCS

Two weeks left in the season (except for Army-Navy), and there is a major shake-up in the teams making BCS games.

This past week, Northern Illinois jumped Fresno State in the BCS rankings.  With both teams in the top-16 in the BCS rankings, and an automatic-qualifying champion finishing below both teams, one of them is likely to make a BCS game.

The other deciding factor for Northern Illinois to now jump into a BCS game comes down to one game.  Fresno State will finish the season playing only 12 games (including a conference championship game), while Northern Illinois will play 13.  Fresno State was forced to cancel a game due to weather earlier in the season, and could not find an opponent to play a 12th game.

Looking at the other BCS games, many remain the same.  Oregon’s unexpected loss to Arizona knocks them out in favor of Stanford, who will claim the Pac-12’s bid to the Rose Bowl.

With Alabama and Florida State going to the National Championship, the Orange and Sugar Bowls preserve their normal automatic bids and choose Clemson (Orange) and Auburn (Sugar) as replacement teams.  Michigan State picks up the last available spot as an at-large team.

When figuring out the rest of the projections, teams potentially playing in conference championship games run the risk of slipping.  A perfect example of this is South Carolina.  In these projections, Missouri loses allowing the Gamecocks to reach the SEC Championship Game.  If they lose, it is likely they could fall below other teams with the same amount of wins (this would include a loss this week to Clemson).

After this week, several schools should begin to accept bowl bids, allowing the bowl picture to get a little clearer.

BOWL	TEAMS
Gildan New Mexico Bowl	Utah State	Arizona
Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl	Fresno State	UCLA
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl	Buffalo	UNLV
R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl	North Texas	Louisiana-Lafayette
Beef ‘O’ Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl	Middle Tennessee	Southern Methodist
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl	East Carolina	Colorado State
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl	Bowling Green	Arkansas State
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl	San Diego State	Toledo
Military Bowl Presented By Northrop Grumman	Tulane	Pittsburgh
Texas Bowl	Michigan	Texas Tech
Fight Hunger Bowl	Washington	BYU
New Era Pinstripe Bowl	Houston	Notre Dame
Belk Bowl	Louisville	Georgia Tech
Russell Athletic Bowl	Virginia Tech	Cincinnati
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl	Minnesota	Texas
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl	Boise State	Navy
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl	Vanderbilt	North Carolina
Valero Alamo Bowl	Oregon	Oklahoma
National University Holiday Bowl	Kansas State	USC
Advocare V100 Bowl	Boston College	Central Michigan
Hyundai Sun Bowl	Miami (FL)	Arizona State
AutoZone Liberty Bowl	Marshall	Ole Miss
Chick-fil-A Bowl	Duke	South Carolina
TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl	Iowa	Georgia
Heart of Dallas Bowl	Ohio	Rice
Capital One Bowl	Wisconsin	Missouri
Outback Bowl	Nebraska	Texas A&M
Rose Bowl Game presented by VIZIO	Stanford	Ohio State
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl	Oklahoma State	Northern Illinois
Allstate Sugar Bowl	Auburn	UCF
Discover Orange Bowl	Clemson	Michigan State
AT&T Cotton Bowl	Baylor	LSU
BBVA Compass Bowl	Mississippi State	Rutgers
GoDaddy Bowl	Western Kentucky	Ball State
VIZIO BCS National Championship	Alabama	Florida State