Breaking Down the BCS Bowl Projections

It is less than a week before we officially find out who will play in the five BCS games.  Let’s see how they will shape up.

The bowl projections for the rest of the games will be posted soon, but a special post for just the BCS games was needed.

There are a couple teams that are into a BCS game, regardless of outcomes this weekend.  As current No. 1 and No. 2 in the BCS standings, Florida State and Ohio State are in BCS games, regardless of how they play in their conference championship games.

Despite not playing this week, Alabama is in a BCS game.  As the top team in the country for practically the entire season, the Crimson Tide will play in one of the country’s top bowl games.

The Buckeyes’ opponent in the Big Ten Championship Game, Michigan State, will also play in a BCS game, no matter what.  The Spartans will either be the Big Ten representative, or a replacement team for Ohio State.

Champions of the SEC, Pac-12, Big 12, and American conferences all gain automatic bids to BCS games.  In each conference, only one team will make it, and it is too close to call.  The one exception might be the Big 12 Conference, which could have two one-loss teams as attractive alternatives.

Northern Illinois is in a ‘win-and-in’ situation.  The Huskies should qualify as a non-AQ (automatic qualifier), at-large team for the second straight year.  Since Northern Illinois is not in one of the major conferences, they qualify by either being in the top-12 of the BCS standings, or in the top-16 with a qualifying conference champion ranked lower.

In the end, it leaves one spot open.  Despite Clemson’s loss to South Carolina, the Tigers may squeak into a BCS game.  The Orange Bowl may attempt to preserve its ACC tie-in, and opt to take a two-loss Clemson team, rather than a more qualified team.

Here are the projections:

Rose Bowl – Stanford (Pac-12 Champions) vs. Michigan State (replacement team for Ohio State)

Fiesta Bowl – Baylor (Big 12 Champions) vs. Northern Illinois (3rd at-large pick; non-AQ team finishing high in BCS (see above explanation)

Sugar Bowl – Auburn (SEC Champions) vs. UCF (American Conference Champions; no direct conference tie-in, 2nd at-large pick)

Orange Bowl – Clemson (replacement team for Florida State) vs. Alabama (1st at-large pick)

BCS National Championship – Florida State (No. 1 in BCS Standings) vs. Ohio State (No. 2 in BCS Standings)

Updated Bowl Projections: Northern Illinois Returns to BCS

Two weeks left in the season (except for Army-Navy), and there is a major shake-up in the teams making BCS games.

This past week, Northern Illinois jumped Fresno State in the BCS rankings.  With both teams in the top-16 in the BCS rankings, and an automatic-qualifying champion finishing below both teams, one of them is likely to make a BCS game.

The other deciding factor for Northern Illinois to now jump into a BCS game comes down to one game.  Fresno State will finish the season playing only 12 games (including a conference championship game), while Northern Illinois will play 13.  Fresno State was forced to cancel a game due to weather earlier in the season, and could not find an opponent to play a 12th game.

Looking at the other BCS games, many remain the same.  Oregon’s unexpected loss to Arizona knocks them out in favor of Stanford, who will claim the Pac-12’s bid to the Rose Bowl.

With Alabama and Florida State going to the National Championship, the Orange and Sugar Bowls preserve their normal automatic bids and choose Clemson (Orange) and Auburn (Sugar) as replacement teams.  Michigan State picks up the last available spot as an at-large team.

When figuring out the rest of the projections, teams potentially playing in conference championship games run the risk of slipping.  A perfect example of this is South Carolina.  In these projections, Missouri loses allowing the Gamecocks to reach the SEC Championship Game.  If they lose, it is likely they could fall below other teams with the same amount of wins (this would include a loss this week to Clemson).

After this week, several schools should begin to accept bowl bids, allowing the bowl picture to get a little clearer.

BOWL	TEAMS
Gildan New Mexico Bowl	Utah State	Arizona
Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl	Fresno State	UCLA
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl	Buffalo	UNLV
R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl	North Texas	Louisiana-Lafayette
Beef ‘O’ Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl	Middle Tennessee	Southern Methodist
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl	East Carolina	Colorado State
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl	Bowling Green	Arkansas State
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl	San Diego State	Toledo
Military Bowl Presented By Northrop Grumman	Tulane	Pittsburgh
Texas Bowl	Michigan	Texas Tech
Fight Hunger Bowl	Washington	BYU
New Era Pinstripe Bowl	Houston	Notre Dame
Belk Bowl	Louisville	Georgia Tech
Russell Athletic Bowl	Virginia Tech	Cincinnati
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl	Minnesota	Texas
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl	Boise State	Navy
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl	Vanderbilt	North Carolina
Valero Alamo Bowl	Oregon	Oklahoma
National University Holiday Bowl	Kansas State	USC
Advocare V100 Bowl	Boston College	Central Michigan
Hyundai Sun Bowl	Miami (FL)	Arizona State
AutoZone Liberty Bowl	Marshall	Ole Miss
Chick-fil-A Bowl	Duke	South Carolina
TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl	Iowa	Georgia
Heart of Dallas Bowl	Ohio	Rice
Capital One Bowl	Wisconsin	Missouri
Outback Bowl	Nebraska	Texas A&M
Rose Bowl Game presented by VIZIO	Stanford	Ohio State
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl	Oklahoma State	Northern Illinois
Allstate Sugar Bowl	Auburn	UCF
Discover Orange Bowl	Clemson	Michigan State
AT&T Cotton Bowl	Baylor	LSU
BBVA Compass Bowl	Mississippi State	Rutgers
GoDaddy Bowl	Western Kentucky	Ball State
VIZIO BCS National Championship	Alabama	Florida State

Bowl Projections: The 4th Edition

We are in the final month of the season, and there are many teams right on the edge of making or missing a bowl game.

As I have mentioned in the past concerning my projections, any likenesses to bowl projections done by experts is simply coincidental.  If you care to share, just make sure to give the credit to where credit is due.  Also, teams in BOLD indicates the team has already accepted an invitation and will go to that bowl.

BOWL	TEAMS
Gildan New Mexico Bowl	San Jose State	Oregon State
Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl	Boise State	Washington
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl	Bowling Green	UNLV
R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl	Tulane	Louisiana-Lafayette
Beef ‘O’ Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl	North Texas	Southern Methodist
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl	East Carolina	Colorado State
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl	Ball State	Arkansas State
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl	Utah State	Toledo
Military Bowl Presented By Northrop Grumman	Rice	North Carolina
Texas Bowl	Minnesota	Texas Tech
Fight Hunger Bowl	Arizona	BYU
New Era Pinstripe Bowl	Rutgers	Notre Dame
Belk Bowl	Houston	Syracuse
Russell Athletic Bowl	Virginia Tech	Louisville
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl	Nebraska	Oklahoma State
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl	San Diego State	Navy
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl	Ole Miss	Pittsburgh
Valero Alamo Bowl	UCLA	Oklahoma
National University Holiday Bowl	Kansas State	Arizona State
Advocare V100 Bowl	Duke	Mississippi State
Hyundai Sun Bowl	Georgia Tech	USC
AutoZone Liberty Bowl	Marshall	Vanderbilt
Chick-fil-A Bowl	Miami (FL)	Missouri
TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl	Michigan	Georgia
Heart of Dallas Bowl	Buffalo	Middle Tennessee
Capital One Bowl	Wisconsin	LSU
Outback Bowl	Michigan State	South Carolina
Rose Bowl Game presented by VIZIO	Stanford	Ohio State
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl	Texas	Fresno State
Allstate Sugar Bowl	Auburn	UCF
Discover Orange Bowl	Clemson	Oregon
AT&T Cotton Bowl	Baylor	Texas A&M
BBVA Compass Bowl	Tennessee	Cincinnati
GoDaddy Bowl	Western Kentucky	Northern Illinois
VIZIO BCS National Championship	Alabama	Florida State