Breaking Down the BCS Bowl Projections

It is less than a week before we officially find out who will play in the five BCS games.  Let’s see how they will shape up.

The bowl projections for the rest of the games will be posted soon, but a special post for just the BCS games was needed.

There are a couple teams that are into a BCS game, regardless of outcomes this weekend.  As current No. 1 and No. 2 in the BCS standings, Florida State and Ohio State are in BCS games, regardless of how they play in their conference championship games.

Despite not playing this week, Alabama is in a BCS game.  As the top team in the country for practically the entire season, the Crimson Tide will play in one of the country’s top bowl games.

The Buckeyes’ opponent in the Big Ten Championship Game, Michigan State, will also play in a BCS game, no matter what.  The Spartans will either be the Big Ten representative, or a replacement team for Ohio State.

Champions of the SEC, Pac-12, Big 12, and American conferences all gain automatic bids to BCS games.  In each conference, only one team will make it, and it is too close to call.  The one exception might be the Big 12 Conference, which could have two one-loss teams as attractive alternatives.

Northern Illinois is in a ‘win-and-in’ situation.  The Huskies should qualify as a non-AQ (automatic qualifier), at-large team for the second straight year.  Since Northern Illinois is not in one of the major conferences, they qualify by either being in the top-12 of the BCS standings, or in the top-16 with a qualifying conference champion ranked lower.

In the end, it leaves one spot open.  Despite Clemson’s loss to South Carolina, the Tigers may squeak into a BCS game.  The Orange Bowl may attempt to preserve its ACC tie-in, and opt to take a two-loss Clemson team, rather than a more qualified team.

Here are the projections:

Rose Bowl – Stanford (Pac-12 Champions) vs. Michigan State (replacement team for Ohio State)

Fiesta Bowl – Baylor (Big 12 Champions) vs. Northern Illinois (3rd at-large pick; non-AQ team finishing high in BCS (see above explanation)

Sugar Bowl – Auburn (SEC Champions) vs. UCF (American Conference Champions; no direct conference tie-in, 2nd at-large pick)

Orange Bowl – Clemson (replacement team for Florida State) vs. Alabama (1st at-large pick)

BCS National Championship – Florida State (No. 1 in BCS Standings) vs. Ohio State (No. 2 in BCS Standings)

College Football Picks for Week 13

The season is winding down, and the college football schedule makers are loving the mess they have created.  Several games have a huge impact on conference championships, and ultimately bowl placement.

Last Week:  19-5 (.792)

Overall:  261-55 (.826)

#16 Northern Illinois vs. Toledo

Rutgers vs. #18 UCF (Big BCS implications in this game.)

Chattanooga vs. #1 Alabama

Idaho vs. #2 Florida State

Indiana vs. #3 Ohio State

#4 Baylor vs. #10 Oklahoma State (For the second straight week, Oklahoma State is in a game to determine the Big 12 Champion.)

#5 Oregon vs. Arizona

Citadel vs. #7 Clemson

#8 Missouri vs. #24 Ole Miss (Mississippi is too hot and cold to figure out, plus Missouri has one more week before its big battle against Texas A&M.)

California vs. #9 Stanford

Coastal Carolina vs. #11 South Carolina

#12 Texas A&M vs. #22 LSU (It is hard to go against LSU at home.)

#13 Michigan State vs. Northwestern

#17 Arizona State vs. #14 UCLA (UCLA starts a stretch of games to determine the winner of the Pac-12 South.)

New Mexico vs. #15 Fresno State

#19 Wisconsin vs. #25 Minnesota (Another game with big BCS implications.)

#20 Oklahoma vs. Kansas State

Memphis vs. #21 Louisville

#23 USC vs. Colorado

Old Dominion vs. North Carolina

Duke vs. Wake Forest

Virginia vs. Miami (FL)

East Carolina vs. North Carolina State (North Carolina State is in complete disarray.)

Pittsburgh vs. Syracuse

Alabama A&M vs. Georgia Tech

Boston College vs. Maryland

Mississippi State vs. Arkansas

Georgia Southern vs. Florida

Kentucky vs. Georgia

Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee (The Commodores are on a hot streak.)

College Football Week 11 Picks

Here are this week’s picks.  A new batch of bowl projections will come out next week.  With several key games this week, it’s best to let it play out.

Last Week:  16-4 (.800)

Overall:  224-44 (.836)

#3 Oregon vs. #5 Stanford (I’ve had a hunch on this game since the start of the season.)

#10 Oklahoma vs. #6 Baylor (Could be an unofficial Big 12 Championship game.)

#20 Louisville vs. Connecticut

#13 LSU vs. #1 Alabama

#2 Florida State vs. Wake Forest

#8 Missouri vs. Kentucky

#9 Auburn vs. Tennessee

Virginia Tech vs. #11 Miami (FL)

Kansas vs. #14 Oklahoma State

Mississippi State vs. #15 Texas A&M

#16 Fresno State vs. Wyoming

#19 UCLA vs. Arizona

Houston vs. #21 UCF (Key game in the American.)

#22 Arizona State vs. Utah

#23 Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh

BYU vs. #24 Wisconsin

Kansas State vs. #25 Texas Tech

Virginia vs. North Carolina

Syracuse vs. Maryland

Boston College vs. New Mexico State

NC State vs. Duke

Vanderbilt vs. Florida (Loser probably doesn’t go to a bowl game.)

Arkansas vs. Ole Miss

Appalachian State vs. Georgia