2014-15 Bowl Projections: First Playoff Rankings Released Tuesday Night

College football fans are eagerly awaiting the first release of the selection committee’s rankings.  This will be the first look into the minds of the committee as they will pick not just the top four teams for the playoff, but also four other bowls.

With just a month to go in the season, my top four are Florida State, Oregon, Michigan State, and Alabama.  Remember, this is based off the predicting the entire rest of the season, not just records up to this point.

The whole College Football Playoff, and the creation of a few new bowl games, it has created the issue of filling all of the bowls.  Several conferences will have difficulty filling all of their commitments. It creates a need to dig into the ‘filling the bowls’ rules, which is why a FCS transitional team like Georgia Southern, might make a bowl game.  Normally, they would not be allowed to play.

As the season winds down, this problem of filling all of the bowls will continue to be an issue.  It all depends on where some of these teams that will toe the line of 5-7 or 6-6 right down to the end of the season.  South Carolina, Boston College, Oklahoma State, and Maryland are all examples of teams that will make it close.

Here are the latest projections:

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF	TEAM	TEAM
Rose Bowl Game Presented By Northwestern Mutual Rose Bowl – Pasadena, California Thursday, January 1st 5:00 p.m. – ESPN	Florida State	Alabama
Allstate Sugar Bowl Mercedes-Benz Superdome New Orleans, Louisiana Thursday, January 1st 8:30 p.m. – ESPN	Oregon	Michigan State
College Football Playoff National Championship Game AT&T Stadium – Arlington, Texas Monday, January 12th 8:30 p.m. – ESPN	Rose Bowl Game Winner	Allstate Sugar Bowl Winner
OTHER ‘BIG’ BOWLS	TEAM	TEAM
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl Georgia Dome – Atlanta, Georgia Wednesday, December 31st 1:00 p.m. – ESPN	Georgia	Nebraska
Fiesta Bowl University of Phoenix Stadium Glendale, Arizona Wednesday, December 31st 5:00 p.m. – ESPN	Wisconsin	Oklahoma
Capital One Orange Bowl Sun Life Stadium Miami Gardens, Florida Wednesday, December 31st 8:30 p.m. – ESPN	Clemson	Mississippi State
Cotton Bowl AT&T Stadium – Arlington, Texas Thursday, January 1st 1:00 p.m. – ESPN	Marshall	Baylor
BOWL	TEAM	TEAM
R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl Mercedes-Benz Superdome New Orleans, Louisiana Saturday, December 20th 11:00 am – ESPN	San Diego State	Louisiana-Lafayette
Gildan New Mexico Bowl University Stadium Albuquerque, New Mexico Saturday, December 20th 2:20 p.m. – ESPN	Rice	Fresno State
Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl Sam Boyd Stadium Las Vegas, Nevada Saturday, December 20th 3:30 p.m. – ABC	Boise State	USC
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Bronco Stadium – Boise, Idaho Saturday, December 20th 5:45 p.m. – ESPN	Toledo	Air Force
Raycom Media Camellia Bowl Cramton Bowl Montgomery, Alabama Saturday, December 20th 9:15 p.m. – ESPN	Central Michigan	South Alabama
Miami Beach Bowl Marlins Park – Miami, Florida Monday, December 22nd 2:00 p.m. – TBD	BYU	East Carolina
Boca Raton Bowl FAU Stadium Boca Raton, Florida Tuesday, December 23rd 6:00 p.m. – ESPN	Akron	Bowling Green
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl Qualcomm Stadium San Diego, California Tuesday, December 23rd 9:30 p.m. – ESPN	Colorado State	Navy
Popeyes Bahamas Bowl Thomas Robinson Stadium Nassau, Bahamas Wednesday, December 24th 12:00 p.m. – ESPN	UTEP	Ball State
Hawaii Bowl Aloha Stadium Honolulu, Hawaii Wednesday, December 24th 8:00 p.m. – ESPN	Middle Tennessee	Utah State
Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl Cotton Bowl Stadium Dallas, Texas Friday, December 26th 1:00 p.m. – ESPN	Georgia Southern	Louisiana Tech
Quick Lane Bowl Ford Field – Detroit, Michigan Friday, December 26th 4:30 p.m. – ESPN	Ohio	Boston College
BITCOIN St. Petersburg Bowl Tropicana Field St. Petersburg, Florida Friday, December 26th 8:00 p.m. – ESPN	North Carolina	Cincinnati
Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman Navy-Marine Corps. Stadium Annapolis, Maryland Saturday, December 27th 1:00 p.m. – ESPN	North Carolina State	Houston
Hyundai Sun Bowl Sun Bowl Stadium El Paso, Texas Saturday, December 27th 2:00 p.m. – CBS	Miami (FL)	Arizona State
Duck Commander Independence Bowl Independence Stadium Shreveport, Louisiana Saturday, December 27th 4:00 p.m. – ESPN2	Duke	Oregon State
New Era Pinstripe Bowl Yankee Stadium Bronx, New York Saturday, December 27th 4:30 p.m. – ESPN	Virginia Tech	Maryland
National University Holiday Bowl Qualcomm Stadium San Diego, California Saturday, December 27th 8:00 p.m. – ESPN	Penn State	UCLA
AutoZone Liberty Bowl Liberty Bowl Memphis, Tennessee Monday, December 29th 2:00 p.m. – ESPN	Kansas State	Texas A&M
Russell Athletic Bowl Florida Citrus Bowl Orlando, Florida Monday, December 29th 5:30 p.m. – ESPN	Louisville	West Virginia
AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl NRG Stadium – Houston, Texas Monday, December 29th 9:00 p.m. – ESPN	Utah	Florida
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl LP Field – Nashville, Tennessee Tuesday, December 30th 3:00 p.m. – ESPN	Minnesota	LSU
Belk Bowl Bank of America Stadium Charlotte, North Carolina Tuesday, December 30th 6:30 p.m. – ESPN	Notre Dame	South Carolina
San Francisco Bowl Levi’s Stadium Santa Clara, California Tuesday, December 30th 10:00 p.m. – ESPN	Rutgers	Arizona
Citrus Bowl Florida Citrus Bowl Orlando, Florida Thursday, January 1st 1:00 p.m. – ABC	Ohio State	Auburn
Outback Bowl Raymond James Stadium Tampa, Florida Thursday, January 1st 1:00 p.m. – ESPN2	Iowa	Missouri
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl Amon G. Carter Stadium Fort Worth, Texas Friday, January 2nd 12:00 p.m. – ESPN	Nevada	Temple
TaxSlayer Bowl EverBank Field Jacksonville, Florida Friday, January 2nd 3:20 p.m. – ESPN	Georgia Tech	Ole Miss
Valero Alamo Bowl Alamodome San Antonio, Texas Friday, January 2nd 6:45 p.m. – ESPN	TCU	Washington
Cactus Bowl Sun Devil Stadium Tempe, Arizona Friday, January 2nd 10:15 p.m. – ESPN	Oklahoma State	Stanford
Birmingham Bowl Legion Field Birmingham, Alabama Saturday, January 3rd 1:00 p.m. – ESPN/ESPN2	Arkansas State	UCF
GoDaddy Bowl Ladd-Peebles Stadium Mobile, Alabama Sunday, January 4th 9:00 p.m. – ESPN	Northern Illinois	Louisiana-Monroe

Disclaimer:  I have come up with these projections on my own, based on predicting each team’s record for the upcoming season.  Any likenesses to the real experts is purely coincidental.  If you wish to share, please give credit to where credit is due.

College Football Week 2 Picks

Last week was a good one to start off the season.  My alma mater let me down, and no one could have expected Temple’s embarrassment of Vanderbilt.

Last Week:  32-3 (.914)

Pittsburgh vs. Boston College

Citadel vs. #1 Florida State

Florida Atlantic vs. #2 Alabama

#7 Michigan State vs. #3 Oregon (At one time, you would pick defense, but with this game being on the West Coast and how offense goes right now in college football, the edge goes to the Ducks.)

#4 Oklahoma vs. Tulsa

San Jose State vs. #5 Auburn

Virginia Tech vs. #8 Ohio State (Not Navy for Ohio State, but this will be the Buckeyes true measuring stick for how their season will go without Braxton Miller.)

Lamar vs. #9 Texas A&M

Northwestern State vs. #10 Baylor

Memphis vs. #11 UCLA

Sam Houston vs. #12 LSU

#14 USC vs. #13 Stanford

#15 Ole Miss vs. Vanderbilt (Based on last week’s game, this one might get ugly.)

Michigan vs. #16 Notre Dame

#17 Arizona State vs. New Mexico

Western Illinois vs. #18 Wisconsin

McNeese State vs. #19 Nebraska

#20 Kansas State vs. Iowa State

East Carolina vs. #21 South Carolina

San Diego State vs. #21 North Carolina

South Carolina State vs. #23 Clemson

#24 Missouri vs. Toledo

Murray State vs. #25 Louisville

Richmond vs. Virginia

Georgia Tech vs. Tulane

Old Dominion vs. North Carolina State

Gardner-Webb vs. Wake Forest

Florida A&M vs. Miami (FL)

Duke vs. Troy

Arkansas State vs. Tennessee

UAB vs. Mississippi State

Ohio vs. Kentucky

Eastern Michigan vs. Florida

Nicholls State vs. Arkansas

Ranking the 2013-14 Bowl Games

On the eve of the 2013-14 College Football Bowl season, let’s look at the best and worst games, to figure out which games to watch, and which ones to avoid.

5 Stars:

Rose Bowl Game presented by VIZIO – Stanford vs. Michigan State – If you love defense, this is the game for you.  Both teams have defenses that are among the best in the country.  This game will come down to which team can consistently put enough offense together to score more than the other.

VIZIO BCS National Championship – Florida State vs. Auburn – This game will be great for the exact opposite reason of the Rose Bowl.  Both of these teams have high-powered offenses, each featuring a Heisman finalist.  Florida State has the better defense, but Auburn has shredded some of the SEC’s best defenses in 2013.

4 Stars:

Discover Orange Bowl – Clemson vs. Ohio State – This game is very intriguing considering it is two teams that thought it would be their year.  All Ohio State had to do was beat Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship Game, and they are playing for a national title.  Clemson was dismantled by Florida State early in the year, and it kind of put them in a long-shot situation.

Chick-fil-A Bowl – Duke vs. Texas A&M – Two competing story-lines in this game.  First there is Duke, who shocked the world and made it to the ACC Championship Game.  Then there is Texas A&M, who had a somewhat disappointing season, especially considering the return of Johnny Manziel.

Valero Alamo Bowl – Oregon vs. Texas – This game gets 4-star quality considering it is Mack Brown’s final game at Texas.  Oregon is significantly better than Texas, but the question will be how much does emotions play a part of the game.

3 Stars:

 

Allstate Sugar Bowl – Oklahoma vs. Alabama

Outback Bowl – Iowa vs. LSU

Capital One Bowl – Wisconsin vs. South Carolina

TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl – Nebraska vs. Georgia

Hyundai Sun Bowl – Virginia Tech vs. UCLA

National University Holiday Bowl – Arizona State vs. Texas Tech

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl – Ole Miss vs. Georgia Tech

Russell Athletic Bowl – Miami (FL) vs. Louisville

New Era Pinstripe Bowl – Rutgers vs. Notre Dame

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl – Boise State vs. Oregon State

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl – Ohio vs. East Carolina

Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl – Fresno State vs. USC

2 Stars:

GoDaddy Bowl – Arkansas State vs. Ball State

AT&T Cotton Bowl – Oklahoma State vs. Missouri

AutoZone Liberty Bowl – Rice vs. Mississippi State

Advocare V100 Bowl – Arizona vs. Boston College

Belk Bowl – Cincinnati vs. North Carolina

Fight Hunger Bowl – BYU vs. Washington

Texas Bowl – Syracuse vs. Minnesota

Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman – Marshall vs. Maryland

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl – Utah State vs. Northern Illinois

Gildan New Mexico Bowl – Washington State vs. Colorado State

1 Star:

BBVA Compass Bowl – Vanderbilt vs. Houston

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl – UCF vs. Baylor

Heart of Dallas Bowl – UNLV vs. North Texas

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl – Middle Tennessee vs. Navy

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl – Michigan vs. Kansas State

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl – Pittsburgh vs. Bowling Green

R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl – Tulane vs. Louisiana-Lafayette

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl – Buffalo vs. San Diego State

Breaking Down the BCS Bowl Projections

It is less than a week before we officially find out who will play in the five BCS games.  Let’s see how they will shape up.

The bowl projections for the rest of the games will be posted soon, but a special post for just the BCS games was needed.

There are a couple teams that are into a BCS game, regardless of outcomes this weekend.  As current No. 1 and No. 2 in the BCS standings, Florida State and Ohio State are in BCS games, regardless of how they play in their conference championship games.

Despite not playing this week, Alabama is in a BCS game.  As the top team in the country for practically the entire season, the Crimson Tide will play in one of the country’s top bowl games.

The Buckeyes’ opponent in the Big Ten Championship Game, Michigan State, will also play in a BCS game, no matter what.  The Spartans will either be the Big Ten representative, or a replacement team for Ohio State.

Champions of the SEC, Pac-12, Big 12, and American conferences all gain automatic bids to BCS games.  In each conference, only one team will make it, and it is too close to call.  The one exception might be the Big 12 Conference, which could have two one-loss teams as attractive alternatives.

Northern Illinois is in a ‘win-and-in’ situation.  The Huskies should qualify as a non-AQ (automatic qualifier), at-large team for the second straight year.  Since Northern Illinois is not in one of the major conferences, they qualify by either being in the top-12 of the BCS standings, or in the top-16 with a qualifying conference champion ranked lower.

In the end, it leaves one spot open.  Despite Clemson’s loss to South Carolina, the Tigers may squeak into a BCS game.  The Orange Bowl may attempt to preserve its ACC tie-in, and opt to take a two-loss Clemson team, rather than a more qualified team.

Here are the projections:

Rose Bowl – Stanford (Pac-12 Champions) vs. Michigan State (replacement team for Ohio State)

Fiesta Bowl – Baylor (Big 12 Champions) vs. Northern Illinois (3rd at-large pick; non-AQ team finishing high in BCS (see above explanation)

Sugar Bowl – Auburn (SEC Champions) vs. UCF (American Conference Champions; no direct conference tie-in, 2nd at-large pick)

Orange Bowl – Clemson (replacement team for Florida State) vs. Alabama (1st at-large pick)

BCS National Championship – Florida State (No. 1 in BCS Standings) vs. Ohio State (No. 2 in BCS Standings)

Updated Bowl Projections: Northern Illinois Returns to BCS

Two weeks left in the season (except for Army-Navy), and there is a major shake-up in the teams making BCS games.

This past week, Northern Illinois jumped Fresno State in the BCS rankings.  With both teams in the top-16 in the BCS rankings, and an automatic-qualifying champion finishing below both teams, one of them is likely to make a BCS game.

The other deciding factor for Northern Illinois to now jump into a BCS game comes down to one game.  Fresno State will finish the season playing only 12 games (including a conference championship game), while Northern Illinois will play 13.  Fresno State was forced to cancel a game due to weather earlier in the season, and could not find an opponent to play a 12th game.

Looking at the other BCS games, many remain the same.  Oregon’s unexpected loss to Arizona knocks them out in favor of Stanford, who will claim the Pac-12’s bid to the Rose Bowl.

With Alabama and Florida State going to the National Championship, the Orange and Sugar Bowls preserve their normal automatic bids and choose Clemson (Orange) and Auburn (Sugar) as replacement teams.  Michigan State picks up the last available spot as an at-large team.

When figuring out the rest of the projections, teams potentially playing in conference championship games run the risk of slipping.  A perfect example of this is South Carolina.  In these projections, Missouri loses allowing the Gamecocks to reach the SEC Championship Game.  If they lose, it is likely they could fall below other teams with the same amount of wins (this would include a loss this week to Clemson).

After this week, several schools should begin to accept bowl bids, allowing the bowl picture to get a little clearer.

BOWL	TEAMS
Gildan New Mexico Bowl	Utah State	Arizona
Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl	Fresno State	UCLA
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl	Buffalo	UNLV
R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl	North Texas	Louisiana-Lafayette
Beef ‘O’ Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl	Middle Tennessee	Southern Methodist
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl	East Carolina	Colorado State
Little Caesars Pizza Bowl	Bowling Green	Arkansas State
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl	San Diego State	Toledo
Military Bowl Presented By Northrop Grumman	Tulane	Pittsburgh
Texas Bowl	Michigan	Texas Tech
Fight Hunger Bowl	Washington	BYU
New Era Pinstripe Bowl	Houston	Notre Dame
Belk Bowl	Louisville	Georgia Tech
Russell Athletic Bowl	Virginia Tech	Cincinnati
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl	Minnesota	Texas
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl	Boise State	Navy
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl	Vanderbilt	North Carolina
Valero Alamo Bowl	Oregon	Oklahoma
National University Holiday Bowl	Kansas State	USC
Advocare V100 Bowl	Boston College	Central Michigan
Hyundai Sun Bowl	Miami (FL)	Arizona State
AutoZone Liberty Bowl	Marshall	Ole Miss
Chick-fil-A Bowl	Duke	South Carolina
TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl	Iowa	Georgia
Heart of Dallas Bowl	Ohio	Rice
Capital One Bowl	Wisconsin	Missouri
Outback Bowl	Nebraska	Texas A&M
Rose Bowl Game presented by VIZIO	Stanford	Ohio State
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl	Oklahoma State	Northern Illinois
Allstate Sugar Bowl	Auburn	UCF
Discover Orange Bowl	Clemson	Michigan State
AT&T Cotton Bowl	Baylor	LSU
BBVA Compass Bowl	Mississippi State	Rutgers
GoDaddy Bowl	Western Kentucky	Ball State
VIZIO BCS National Championship	Alabama	Florida State